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☆ German export sentiment improves in November - Ifo
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

A cargo ship is seen on river Main in front of the skyline during a summer evening in Frankfurt, Germany, August 13, 2023. REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 27 (Reuters) - Sentiment among German exporters improved in November, although only a few sectors expected exports to increase, according to a survey by the Ifo economic institute released on Monday. The institute's export expectations indicator rose to minus 3.8 points in November from minus 6.3 points in October. "However, the export economy still isn't managing to develop any momentum," Klaus Wohlrabe, head of surveys at Ifo, said. "German companies have yet to benefit much from the economic upswing in many countries," he added.

Persons: Kai Pfaffenbach, Klaus Wohlrabe, Amir Orusov, Rachel More Organizations: REUTERS, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Ifo

☆ German budget crisis will haunt economy for years
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-24 | by ( Pierre Briancon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

LONDON, Nov 24 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The German government is working hard to demonstrate the foolishness of the country’s iron-clad ban on large budget deficits. The budget crisis will cripple the economy for years to come, for three reasons. The debt brake, which limits structural budget deficits to 0.35% of GDP, has only been suspended for this year’s budget. Public net investment has been negative for 20 years, Marcel Fratzscher, head of the German Institute for Economic Research, has pointed out. The country is not on the cusp of a debt crisis.

Persons: Carsten Brzeski, That’s, Marcel Fratzscher, Christian Lindner, Lindner, George Hay, Streisand Neto Organizations: Reuters, Constitutional, Organisation for Economic Co, Development, ING, German Economic Institute, Public, German Institute for Economic Research, German, Germany’s, Thomson Locations: Europe, Berlin

☆ Canada tax rule curbs Airbnb deductions to ease rental shortage
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsTORONTO, Nov 21 (Reuters) - Canada introduced tax measures on Tuesday to ease a severe rental housing shortage by limiting income tax deductions on short-term rentals on services such as Airbnb Inc (ABNB.O) and VRBO, joining many countries that are enacting similar laws. The new rules apply as of Jan. 1 in provinces and municipalities that bar short-term rentals, and affect deductions such as interest expenses, the federal government said in its fall economic statement. In Montréal, Toronto and Vancouver alone, an estimated 18,900 homes were being used as short-term rental properties in 2020, the report added, noting that the number "has almost surely increased in recent years." Starting in 2024, the government will spend C$50 million ($36 million) over three years to enable municipal enforcement of restrictions on short-term rentals. Gabriel Giguère, public policy analyst at Montreal Economic Institute, criticized the government's decision to modify the tax treatment of the expenses of owners of short-term rental apartments.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Nathan Rotman, Gabriel Giguère, Giguère, Nivedita Balu, Richard Chang, Leslie Adler Organizations: REUTERS, Rights TORONTO, Inc, Canada, Montreal Economic Institute, British Columbia, Thomson Locations: Canada, Montréal, Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal, Australia, Italy, Canadian, U.S, Florence, Byron, British

And while the local government says Berlin has sufficient space to build over 100,000 apartments, there is no sign the housing crisis gripping the city will ease. But as Europe's largest economy teeters near recession, economists warn that high rents will feed inflation and reduce household consumption. In Berlin, local opposition has frustrated plans to build, while regulation creates a two-tier rental market that is cheap for some long-term tenants and expensive for new renters. Rising property demand saw private companies develop luxury apartments that offered a higher yield - in part, Buch said, because government permissioning for more affordable housing projects was so slow. OPPOSITIONSome building projects have since faced local opposition while a recent attempt to curb rent increases backfired.

Persons: Lisi Niesner, Rolf Buch, Buch, you've, Konstantin Kholodilin, Marwa, Monika Neugebauer, Goldman Sachs, Neugebauer, Gesa Crockford, Martin Pallgen, Anna Hohnrath, Hohnrath, Matthias Inverardi, Matthias Williams, Catherine Evans Organizations: Berlin, REUTERS, Rights, Vonovia, Reuters, DIVISION, International Union of Tenants, European, West, Foreigners, Thomson Locations: Berlin, Germany, San Francisco, California, City, Tempelhof, Valencia, Spain

[1/3] FILE PHOTO: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz looks on as he meets NATO's Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg in Berlin, Germany, November 9, 2023. Wednesday's decision by the constitutional court could also set a precedent for fiscal responses to future crises. "FAR-REACHING CONSEQUENCES""The court ruling has far-reaching consequences for fiscal policy in Germany," said Clemens Fuest, President of the Ifo economic institute. This was done with the Second Supplementary Budget Act 2021, which retroactively amended the Budget Act for 2021. The constitutional court ruled that this act was incompatible with Germany's Basic Law and so was void.

Persons: Olaf Scholz, Jens Stoltenberg, Liesa, Chancellor Olaf Scholz's, Christian Lindner, Lindner, Scholz, Robert Habeck, Clemens Fuest, Ralph Solveen, Habeck, Friedrich Merz, Maria Martinez, Christian Kraemer, Ursula Knapp, Matthias Williams, Kirsti Knolle, Madeline Chambers, Susan Fenton, William Maclean, Catherine Evans Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Finance, Union, Social Democrats, Free Democrats, Christian Democratic Union, Thomson Locations: Berlin, Germany, Ukraine

☆ German Court deals blow to Scholz government with budget ruling
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Germany's constitutional court ruled on Wednesday that the government's re-allocation of 60 billion euros ($65 billion) of unused debt from the pandemic era to a climate fund was illegal, dealing a blow to Chancellor Olaf Scholz's coalition. This was done with the Second Supplementary Budget Act 2021, which retroactively amended the Budget Act for 2021. The constitutional court ruled that this act was incompatible with Germany's Basic Law and so was void. In addition, the government changed the accounting principal by which borrowing counted against the budget deficit in the year the borrowing was actually done. "The court ruling has far-reaching consequences for fiscal policy in Germany," said Clemens Fuest, President of the Ifo economic institute.

Persons: Chancellor Olaf Scholz's, Christian Lindner, Clemens Fuest Organizations: Social Democrats, Greens, Free Democrats Locations: Germany

☆ Wave of cancellations in German housing construction at new high -Ifo
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

BERLIN, Nov 6 (Reuters) - Germany's residential construction sector was again hit by a wave of cancellations in October, according to a survey published on Monday that showed a record number of firms reporting abandoned projects. "It's getting worse all the time, with more and more projects failing due to higher interest rates and elevated construction prices," says Klaus Wohlrabe, Ifo head of surveys. "In residential construction, new business remains very low and companies' order backlogs are diminishing." The number of companies reporting a lack of orders also increased in October, to 48.7% of firms from 46.6% in September. "Nearly half of all residential construction companies are now suffering from a lack of orders, and that number is growing every month," said Wohlrabe.

Persons: Klaus Wohlrabe, Miranda Murray, Rachel More Organizations: Thomson

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's coalition unveiled in July a strategy toward de-risking Germany's economic relationship with China, calling Beijing a "partner, competitor and systemic rival". German investment in Asia excluding China is rising as a share of overall investment. "No company is going to say that it will leave China," said Sandra Ebner, senior economist at Union Investment, Germany's second-largest fund manager. "But what companies are increasingly doing is to produce in China for China and to position themselves around China for the remaining Asian or global market." In July, German Economy Minister Robert Habeck travelled to India with a delegation of executives to discuss opportunities for German companies.

Persons: Thomas Nuernberger, Nuernberger, Olaf Scholz's, Volker Treier, Munk, Ferdinand Munk, Scholz, Angela Merkel's, Martin Brudermueller, Max Zenglein, Juergen Matthes, Markus Horn, Matthias Bianchi, Joe Biden, Wolfgang Niedermark, Jan Roennfeld, Roennfeld, Sandra Ebner, BDI's Niedermark, Robert Habeck, Christoph Steitz, Sarah Marsh, Maria Martinez, Aditya Kalra, Sarita Chaganti Singh, Xinghui, Orathai, Brenda Goh Organizations: Reuters, Commerce and Industry, Volkswagen, Mercedes, Benz, BASF, IW Institute, Big, Mercator Institute for China Studies, Economic Institute, Horn, German Association of, Indonesian Chamber of Commerce, Union Investment, Thomson Locations: FRANKFURT, BERLIN, Berlin, Beijing, China, Taiwan, India, Asia, Germany, Europe, Vietnam, South Korea, Indonesia, South China, European, Thailand, United States, Mexico, Indonesian, Eastern Germany, Malaysia, Frankfurt, New Delhi, Xinghui Kok, Singapore, Bangkok, Shanghai

[1/3] Tokyo Tower is seen from the 52nd floor of 'Azabudai Hills Mori JP Tower', developed by Mori Building Co., during press preview of the complex in Tokyo, Japan, in this photo taken by Kyodo on August 8, 2023. "Housing prices and rents have risen a lot compared to the past, but in the end, salaries haven't gone up that much." After weathering decades of deflation and stagnant growth, Japan is seeing an investment boom that has made apartments in central Tokyo unaffordable for young Japanese professionals. For locals, the surge in prices has made Tokyo the second most unaffordable city worldwide, only behind Hong Kong, according to a UBS global real estate report. Average condo prices in central Tokyo were bumped up in the past year by a large supply of high-end residences hitting the market.

Persons: Kawamata, she'd, I'm, haven't, Cushman, Mari Kumagai, Kumagai, Wang Mao San, Wang, Mari Mochizuki, who's, Mariko Katsumura, Rocky Swift, Sonali Paul Organizations: Mori, Kyodo, REUTERS Acquire, Rights, Real Estate Economic, UBS, Reuters, Cushman & Wakefield, Wakefield, Shingi, fusaya Realty Inc, Super, Japan Real Estate Institute, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Hong Kong, London, Singapore, New York, China, Asia, Asia Pacific, Australia, Taiwan, Taiwanese, Osaka, Tokyo's

☆ Germany risks letting a good crisis go to waste
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( Pierre Briancon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

Germany, the European Union’s largest economy and its traditional growth engine, is headed towards a contraction this year. Exports account for more than half of Germany’s GDP, compared to just a third in France and 37% in Italy, according to the World Bank. Germany’s growth potential is estimated at an annual 0.7% over the medium term by the Scope rating agency, about half the euro zone average. Exempting net public investment from the debt brake rule would help to reverse years of underspending. Unless they do, Europe’s leading economy risks letting a good crisis go to waste.

Persons: –, Hubertus Bardt, Germany’s, Carsten Brzeski, Oliver Rakau, Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Christian Lindner’s, Sebastian Dullien, Scholz, Destatis, Francesco Guerrera, Streisand Neto Organizations: Reuters, World Bank, EU, International Monetary Fund, Reuters Graphics Reuters, German Economic Institute, ING, Oxford Economics, BASF, Finance, Christian Democrats, Thomson Locations: Germany, Berlin, France, Italy, China –, Spain, Weimar Republic, China, Ukraine

☆ German GDP expected to contract by 0.6% this year, economic institutes say
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Business sentiment has recently deteriorated again and overall, the indicators suggest that production fell noticeably in the third quarter of 2023, the economic institutes said. GDP is expected to shrink by 0.4% in the third quarter, following stagnation in the second quarter. For 2024, the institutes - four German and one Austrian - forecast GDP growth of 1.3%, down from 1.5% previously. In the following years, a decreasing potential growth rate due to the shrinking labour force will become more and more apparent, the economic institutes said. The Joint Economic Forecasts are prepared by the Ifo Institute, the Halley Institute for Economic Research, the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, the RWI – Leibniz Institute for Economic Research and the Austrian Institute of Economic Research.

Persons: Kai Pfaffenbach, Oliver Holtemoeller, Maria Martinez, Friederike Heine Our Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Reuters, Halle Institute for Economic Research, Ifo Institute, Halley Institute for Economic Research, Kiel Institute, Institute for Economic Research, Austrian Institute of Economic Research, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany

☆ German inflation falls to lowest level since start of Ukraine war
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/Fabian Bimmer/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsBERLIN, Sept 28 (Reuters) - German inflation fell in September to its lowest level since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, signalling what could be the beginning of the end for the high inflation that has weighed heavily on Europe's largest economy. Germany's core inflation rate, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, fell to 4.6% year-on-year from 5.5% in August. Meanwhile, five economic institutes predict Germany's economy will shrink by 0.6% this year, as rising interest rates take their toll on investment and still high inflation depresses consumption. The ECB is keeping a close eye on euro zone inflation data, with September's reading due to be published on Friday. Spain earlier reported a 3.2% harmonised inflation rate for September.

Persons: Fabian Bimmer, Ralph Solveen, ING's Carsten Brzeski, Brzeski, Maria Martinez, Miranda Murray, Friederike Heine, Kirsten Donovan, Alison Williams Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Union, Reuters, ECB, Central, Thomson Locations: Hamburg, Russia, Ukraine, Spain

Growth of 0.3% had been expected in the institutes' spring forecasts. The so-called Joint Economic Forecasts are to be presented in Berlin on Thursday. The economics ministry usually updates its forecasts incorporating the results of the Joint Economic Forecasts. For 2024, the institutes - four German and one Austrian - forecast GDP growth of 1.3%, down from 1.5% previously. The Joint Economic Forecasts are prepared by the Ifo Institute, the Halle Institute for Economic Research, the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, the RWI – Leibniz Institute for Economic Research and the Austrian Institute of Economic Research.

Persons: Annegret, Christian Kraemer, Rene Wagner, Maria Martinez, Rachel Armstrong, Kirsti Knolle, Sharon Singleton Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Reuters, Ifo Institute, Halle Institute for Economic Research, Kiel Institute, Institute for Economic Research, Austrian Institute of Economic Research, Thomson Locations: Berlin, Germany

☆ German export sentiment drops to three-year low - Ifo
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

In its fifth consecutive month of decline, the institute's export expectations indicator fell to minus 11.3 points in September, from minus 6.5 points in August. "Germany's export economy is going through a weak phase," Klaus Wohlrabe, head of surveys at Ifo, said. "It's likely that export demand won't pick up again significantly until next year," he added. Wohlrabe said higher interest rates were dampening demand for German goods. Last month's hopes for growth in the German chemical industry did not materialize in September, according to the survey.

Persons: Fabian Bimmer, Klaus Wohlrabe, Wohlrabe, Amir Orusov, Rene Wagner, Rachel More Organizations: REUTERS, Thomson Locations: Bremerhaven, Germany, Ifo

☆ China targeting German tech 'through back door' with licences: report
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

(Photo by John MACDOUGALL / AFP) (Photo by JOHN MACDOUGALL/AFP via Getty Images)China is going after licences to boost its access to German technology as investment regulation makes company acquisitions in the sector increasingly difficult, the Handelsblatt newspaper reported on Wednesday, citing a study. The study conducted by the IW economic institute, analysing Bundesbank data on behalf of the newspaper, found German licence revenues from China more than tripled in 2022 compared to 2014. Compared with 2020, the increase was about half. "There is a clear early indication that Chinese companies are looking for a new way to get access to German technology," said Juergen Matthes, head of IW's global and regional markets research unit. Tech licences are one way for China to try to get in "through the back door", he told Reuters.

Persons: John MACDOUGALL, JOHN MACDOUGALL, Juergen Matthes Organizations: AFP, Getty Images, Tech, Reuters Locations: Berlin, Germany, China, Russia

The findings come as support for Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his coalition slumps and the AfD capitalises on voter insecurity. German inflation has been on a downward trend, but is still much higher than the European Union's 2% target. Low and middle income households have been generally hit harder by inflation, Florian Dorn, a researcher at Ifo told Reuters. Although higher energy import prices initially drove inflation in Europe and Germany, companies were also putting up prices beyond their cost inflation, WSI analysis showed. Companies' profit inflation rose by 7% in 2022 compared to an only 3.3% rise in labour costs.

Persons: Fabian Bimmer, Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Florian Dorn, Ulrich Schneider, Der, Riham, Alexandra Hudson Organizations: REUTERS, Kantar Public, Ifo, Reuters, Workers, Companies, Alexandra Hudson Our, Thomson Locations: Hamburg, Germany, Russia, Ukraine, Europe's, Europe

☆ China targeting German tech 'through back door' with licences - report
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-09 | by ( Reinhard Becker | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The flags of Germany and China are seen ahead of a meeting between German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Chinese Premier Li Qiang in Berlin, Germany, June 19, 2023. REUTERS/Fabrizio BenschBERLIN, Aug 9 (Reuters) - China is going after licences to boost its access to German technology as investment regulation makes company acquisitions in the sector increasingly difficult, the Handelsblatt newspaper reported on Wednesday, citing a study. Tech licences are one way for China to try to get in "through the back door", he told Reuters. As a result, direct investments and takeover bids by Chinese companies have attracted scrutiny in Berlin in recent months. Through licensing agreements, Chinese companies can gain legal permission to use German technology.

Persons: Olaf Scholz, Li Qiang, Fabrizio Bensch BERLIN, Juergen Matthes, China's Cosco, Rachel More, Kirsti Knolle, Sharon Singleton Organizations: REUTERS, Tech, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Germany, China, Berlin, Russia, Hamburg

☆ China's industrial profits tumble, deepening economic gloom
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

BEIJING, June 28 (Reuters) - Annual profits at China's industrial firms extended a double-digit decline in the first five months as softening demand squeezed margins, reinforcing hopes of more policy support to bolster a stuttering post-COVID economic recovery. "The still slow recovery in industrial profits pointed to sustained difficulties facing business operations," said Wu Chaoming, deputy director of the Chasing International Economic Institute. Wu said the corporate struggles strengthen the case for more policy measures to help companies. "As the external environment becomes increasingly complicated and severe, domestic demand still appears to be insufficient, weighing on further recovery in industrial profits," said NBS statistician Sun Xiao in an accompanying statement, noting that the foundation for a revival in industrial profits is still not solid. Industrial profit numbers cover firms with annual revenues of at least 20 million yuan ($2.77 million) from their main operations.

Persons: Wu Chaoming, Wu, Sun Xiao, Goldman Sachs, Li Qiang, Li, Qiaoyi Li, Ryan Woo, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, Economic Institute, P Global, Summer, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, China, Tianjin

☆ China's tumbling industrial profits deepens economic gloom
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

☆ German recession will be sharper than expected: Ifo
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

BERLIN, June 21 (Reuters) - The German economy will contract more than previously expected this year as sticky inflation takes its toll on private consumption, the Ifo Institute said on Wednesday while presenting its forecasts. "The German economy is only very slowly working its way out of the recession," Ifo's head of economic forecasts, Timo Wollmershaeuser, said. German gross domestic product is expected to fall by 0.4% this year, more than the 0.1% forecast by the Ifo Institute in March. Ifo forecasts eurozone GDP will expand by 0.6% this year and the U.S. by 0.9%. Regarding core inflation, the Ifo Institute forecasts it will increase to 6% this year from 4.9% in the previous year, before falling to 3% in 2024.

Persons: Timo Wollmershaeuser, Wollmershaeuser, Maria Martinez, Matthias Williams, Alex Richardson Organizations: Ifo, Ifo Institute, Thomson Locations: BERLIN, U.S, Germany

☆ Ukrainian firms venture abroad for growth as war hits home
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Olena Harmash | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

The ongoing conflict has prompted several Ukrainian firms to focus abroad to reduce their reliance on a shrinking home market and to tap into the millions of people who have left. Ukraine, which had a pre-war population of about 40 million, has seen its domestic economy turned upside down, with corporate investments and growth now rare. "Our choice was to go to Poland, mainly because Poland hosts now the highest number of Ukrainians who fled from the war." In September, 8.5% of all companies opened in Poland had Ukrainian capital, compared with 0.8% in January 2022. "The main goal is to grow abroad much faster than we planned for ourselves in the pre-war period," Vovk said.

☆ Exclusive: German govt to slightly raise 2023 GDP forecast - sources
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( Holger Hansen | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

BERLIN, April 20 (Reuters) - The German government is set to slightly raise its economic growth forecast for this year to 0.4% from its previously predicted 0.2%, two sources told Reuters on Thursday. For 2024, the government will slightly lower its prediction, to 1.6% from the 1.8% foreseen in January, the sources said. An Economy Ministry spokesperson did not comment and said Economy Minister Robert Habeck would present the spring economic projections next Wednesday. With the new projections, the government is slightly more optimistic than the five economic institutes that prepare the Joint Economic Forecasts, which foresee 2023 economic growth of 0.3%. In the Joint Economic Forecasts, which are incorporated into the ministry's forecasts, the institutes predict inflation of 6.0% in 2023, before slowing to 2.4% in 2024.

SL Naturenergie's predicament is common in the renewables sector where companies, from startups to medium sized and blue-chip firms, are competing for a limited pool of labour with appropriate skills. Currently it faces a shortage of around 216,000 skilled workers needed for the expansion of the solar and wind energy sectors, a study by German organisation KOFA, or the Competence Centre for securing skilled labour, showed. In many jobs in the renewable energy sector, pay is above average, he said, citing a renewable energy wage premium of more than 10% in construction and installation activities, as well as architectural and engineering services. Volker Quaschning, a professor of renewable energy systems at HTW university in Berlin, says a third of places on these courses at HTW are unfilled. Last month Germany also unveiled draft reforms on skills training accreditation and promoting immigration in a bid to plug labour shortages in the economy.

☆ German economy expected to skirt recession - economy ministry report
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

BERLIN, April 14 (Reuters) - Germany is expected to narrowly escape recession and post modest growth in the first quarter of the year, according to an economy ministry report published on Friday. "A technical recession of two negative quarters in a row appears to have been averted," the ministry said. "Consumer sentiment is expected to continue its recovery in the coming months, although inflation-related losses in purchasing power continue to weigh on the economy," the report said. Inflation rates are expected to continue to ease in the coming months, although remaining at a high level. The economy ministry sees risks to its economic outlook, such as weak private consumption, a deterioration of conditions in construction, recent problems in financial institutions and geopolitical uncertainty due to the war in Ukraine.

☆ Consumer outlook rests on the labor market, says Mastercard Economic Institute's Michelle Meyer
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailConsumer outlook rests on the labor market, says Mastercard Economic Institute's Michelle MeyerMichelle Meyer, chief U.S. economist at the Mastercard Economics Institute, and CNBC's Steve Liesman join 'The Exchange' to discuss food inflation relief, potential Fed dissenters, and consumer spending trends.

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